|December 2013||November 2013||December 2012|
The unemployment rate in the Utica-Rome MSA decreased from 8.9 percent in December 2012 to 6.8 percent in December 2013. This marks the tenth consecutive month of over-the-year improvements in the jobless rate. From September 2007 through February 2013, the jobless rate never declined from the previous year. (The current unemployment rate series began in 1990.)
The jobless rate declined from November 2013. The jobless rate usually increases from November to December. Historically, from November to December, in the past 10 years, the unemployment rate increased 8 times, declined once and was unchanged one time.
The unemployment rate is expected to increase dramatically from December to January due to seasonal job losses in construction, retail trade losses due to the end of the Christmas shopping season, and education related losses due to semester breaks at local colleges. Historically, from December to January, in the past 10 years, the unemployment rate increased 10 times. If historical trends are followed, the jobless rate would rise to approximately 7.9 percent in January 2014.
Change in nonfarm jobs since January 2013
For the 12-month period ending January 2014, the nonfarm job count in the Utica-Rome metro area rose 300, or 0.2 percent, to 124,800. Private sector employment fared somewhat better, growing by 500 jobs, or 0.5 percent from a year ago.
Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality (+600), trade, transportation and utilities (+300), natural resources, mining and construction (+200) and financial activities (+100). In trade, transportation and utilities, job gains in retail trade (+400) more than offset declines in transportation, warehousing and utilities (-100).
Job losses were posted in professional and business services (-500), government (-200), information (-100) and other services (-100).
Job losses in government occurred in local government administration (-100), local government education (-100) and federal government (-100). State government gained 100 jobs.
Education and health services is at its highest January total on record. (This data series began in 1990.)
Manufacturing and information are at their lowest January level on record. Government employment is at its lowest January total since 2003. (This data series began in 1990.)Current Employment by Industry data for New York State, Metropolitan Statistical Areas, and Minor Counties.
by Mark Barbano, Labor Market Analyst, Mohawk Valley
What is seasonality? While it impacts many economic series, it is difficult for many people to understand. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics defines seasonality as a “pattern that more or less repeats itself each year, although this pattern may … change … over time.
Many factors contribute to seasonality, including weather conditions, holidays (e.g., Christmas, Easter), annually scheduled calendar events (e.g., the beginning and end of the school year) and dates set by law (e.g., tax filing deadline). Seasonality helps to explain why your home’s heating costs rise in the winter, why demand for turkey increases in November and why it is difficult to find a winter coat in July.
What Goes up...
Benjamin Franklin once said that the only things certain in life are death and taxes. Although death may not be seasonal, the preparation of tax returns certainly qualifies. Accounting, tax preparation and bookkeeping jobs in the Mohawk Valley jumped from 658 in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 888 in the first quarter of 2012, an expansion of 230, or 35%! It is one of the few industries that typically grows in the first quarter of the year. Dominant occupations in this industry include accountants and auditors, bookkeeping, accounting and auditing clerks and tax preparers.
As the Mohawk Valley gets warmer in the second quarter each year, the job count picks up as a number of seasonal industries spring forward. In 2011, construction added over 1,000 jobs, or a gain of 26%, from the first to the second quarter. Another 700 jobs were gained in the third quarter. Highway, street and bridge construction employment doubled from the first to second quarter, as work crews repave and fix roads that were decimated during the region’s long winter.
Accommodation and food services employment rose almost 1,600 or 13% between the first and second quarters of 2011. Employment peaked in the third quarter, after gaining another 600 jobs, or 4.5%. Seasonal hiring in hotels, motels and restaurants in summer destinations such as Sylvan Beach, Old Forge, Cooperstown and the Turning Stone Casino and Resort help boost tourism’s contribution to the region’s economy.
Arts, entertainment and recreation is one of the most seasonal industries in the region. This is demonstrated by the 57% increase in jobs (+983) between first quarter and second quarter 2011. Employment peaked in the third quarter, after growing by gaining another 879 jobs, or 33%. Job gains were centered in amusement and theme parks, such as Enchanted Forest/Water Safari in Old Forge, and golf courses and country clubs found throughout the region.
Must Come Down...
Most of the seasonal industries mentioned above decline sharply after Labor Day. In 2011, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, construction dipped 8% (-448), accommodation and food services fell 8% (-1,205) and the arts, entertainment and recreation industry fell 43% (-1,541). All of these industries continue to lose jobs and hit their annual employment trough in the first quarter of the year.
Accounting, tax preparation and bookkeeping jobs show a different trend. It peaks in the first quarter, drops sharply in the second quarter, continues to fall slightly in the third quarter and stays at that level in the fourth quarter.
A better understanding of seasonality helps us to appreciate its impact on our monthly job figures. Like most regions, the job count in many Mohawk Valley industries fluctuates from quarter to quarter, often due to some of the seasonal factors outlined in this article. For details on the Mohawk Valley regional economy, visit www.labor.ny.gov/stats/moh/.
NYS Department of Labor
State Office Bldg.
207 Genesee St., Room 604
Utica, NY 13501
Phone: (315) 793-2282
Fax: (315) 793-2354
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